Skubick: The numbers show sales tax hike unlikely to pass

In keeping with the weather story that has dominated the news headlines this week, here's the latest news flash: Gov. Snyder's sales tax hike is buried in a deep snow pile.

Sorry. Not very original but you get the picture.

Based on the EPIC-MRA polling data the governor would win this fight if all the 18-34 year old voters earning between $50,000 and $75,000 a year showed-up at the polls once the snow melts in May. In addition the governor gets 53 percent from those Republicans who like him.

Out of all the sub-categories of voters, those are the only three that give just over 50 percent support to the plan. The rest are not there yet and that includes union members who stand to get over 10,000 jobs if the road fix plan is adopted.

Check this out: 51 percent of the union households are a no vote and 42 percent would vote yes. And that's pretty much the norm as you sift through the other cross tabs data supplied by pollster Bernie Porn.

Regions of the state: 38 percent yes in vote-rich Wayne, Oakland, and Macomb Counties.  Thirty-nine percent in West Michigan. Thirty-seven percent in the center of the state. Thirty-three percent up North.

Political affiliations: You would expect Republicans would rally to win one for the Gipper, but only 33 percent back their governor. He does better with Democrats who pony up 37 percent of the yes vote while only about one out of four Independents are there.

Not even the liberals, who've been known to vote for higher taxes along the way, are on board.  Forty-six percent are yes votes. Forty percent of the moderates and 36 percent of the conservatives want the higher tax to fix the roads.

Forty-five percent of the African-American vote is yes while 38 percent of the Caucasian vote agrees.

The blizzard of data (sorry) just underscores the depth of the snow drift (sorry again) the hobbled governor must climb out of if he is going to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat.

Pass the shovel.

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