FOX 2 Mitchell Poll: Clinton Lead Now 6% over Trump in Michigan

Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump on the stage during the final debate in Las Vegas.
Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump on the stage during the final debate in Las Vegas.

EAST LANSING, Michigan --- With thirteen days remaining before the election, the latest Fox 2 Detroit/Mitchell Poll of Michigan shows the race tightening further with Secretary of State Hillary Clinton leading businessman Donald Trump by a 6 percent margin in a in a four-way race that includes Libertarian Party candidate former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Dr. Jill Stein.  In the four-way race it is Clinton 48% - Trump 42% - Johnson 4.5% - Stein 1%, and 5% undecided.  In a two-way race it is Clinton 50% - Trump 44% with 6% undecided.

In the last FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell Poll conducted Sunday night, Clinton’s lead was 8% and she led by 13% on October 18th, the night before the last debate.

The IVR (automated) poll of 1,030 likely voters in the November 2016 General Election was conducted by Mitchell Research & Communications on October 25, 2016 and has a Margin of Error of + or - 2.78% at the 95% level of confidence.

“The race inched closer last night with Clinton losing a point and Trump gaining a point.  Gary Johnson and Jill Stein are doing a little bit better than they were doing on Sunday.  However, Clinton still has a strong lead with absentee voters who have already cast a ballot.  Clinton is still in a strong position, but her support has eroded in the past week,” Steve Mitchell, CEO of Mitchell Research & Communications said.

In terms of key demographics:

Clinton’s lead with women has dropped from 15 percent (54%-39%) to 8 percent (49%-41%) since Sunday, but she has moved from being tied with men at 44% to being ahead by 4% (46%-42%).  The major reason for the erosion with women is because of a big drop with 45-64 year old white females.   

Clinton has also dropped in support with 18-44 year olds where her lead is 9 percent (47%-38%).  In a two-way ballot test, she leads by 15% with that demographic as 10% of the younger voters have switched over to Johnson (7%) or Stein (3%).  Trump is tied with 45-64 year olds at 46% but Clinton is still stronger with 65 and older voters, although her margin has dropped from 55%-34% to 52%-40%. 
Page 2 FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell Poll 10/26/16

For the first time, Clinton is weaker with Democrats (89% in the four-way) than Trump is with Republicans (92% in the four-way).  Trump continues to have a strong lead with Independents (50%-18%).

By race, Trump now leads with white voters (47%-41%) after trailing Clinton with that demographic a week ago (48%-46%).  Clinton leads with African-Americans (83%-14%) and with other ethnic groups (56%-34%).

By area, Clinton leads in the city of Detroit (82%-12%) and Outstate (47%-42%) while Trump has a 1 percent lead over Clinton in the Tri-County area (46%-45%).

Other key findings:
• Both Clinton (45% Favorable-52% Unfavorable) and Trump (40%-55%) are unpopular.  However, Trump’s favorable has continued to go higher and his unfavorable lower.  
• More people say jobs/economy (59%) is the most important issue in the presidential campaign than say national defense/terrorism (29%).  Twelve percent is undecided.

“Trump has posted some gains, but he is trailing badly (60%-33%) among the one-in-four voters (23%) that has already voted by absentee ballot.  Trump has a strong lead among the 4 percent of voters who did not vote in 2012, where he leads 54%-7%.  Clinton still has a strong lead, but the race has tightened since the last debate,” Mitchell concluded. 

Methodology:

Mitchell Research & Communications used a sample of registered voters in the November 2016 Michigan General Election.  Our goal is to spread as wide a net as possible to assure we survey voters who may not have voted in elections for a long time.  A double filter was used to determine that we were surveying only likely voters.
• First voters had to say they were registered voters.  If they were not, the phone call ended.
• Then, they were asked if they were definitely voting, probably voting, not sure yet, or definitely not voting in the November General Election, or if they already voted by absentee ballot.  If they were “definitely not voting” the phone call ended. 

Federal law only permits us to call land lines when using automated phoning.  Any surveys that doesn’t specify if they use cell phones do not use them.  Data is weighted to reflect likely voter turnout by gender, age, and race.

(Steve Mitchell is CEO of Mitchell Research & Communications, an East Lansing, Michigan based national polling and consulting company.  He is currently political pollster for FOX 2 Detroit.  He has polled with great accuracy for the media in Michigan, South Carolina, Florida, Missouri, Illinois, and California.  An examination of RealClearPolitics.com will show that in final polls before the election in races for president, U.S. Senator and governor in Michigan, his final poll results have been off by an average of only 2.75% from actual results 2008-2014.
Mitchell can be reached at 248-891-2414; stevemitchell40@gmail.com; @stevemitchell40 on Twitter)


 


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