MITCHELL POLL: Clinton's lead over Trump stays at 6% in Michigan

EAST LANSING, Michigan --- Despite a major announcement on Friday by FBI Director James Comey that his agency was going to review more than 650,000 emails found on a computer that Anthony Wiener shared with his estranged wife, Huma Abedin, to see if they are related to the Clinton email issue, the latest Fox 2 Detroit/Mitchell Poll of Michigan shows the race has not changed since our survey last Tuesday night. 

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton still has a 6 percent lead over businessman Donald Trump in a in a four-way race that includes Libertarian Party candidate former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Dr. Jill Stein.  In the four-way race it is Clinton 47% - Trump 41% - Johnson 6% - Stein 2%, and 4% are undecided.  In a two-way race it is Clinton 50.5% - Trump 42% with 6% undecided.

The IVR (automated) poll of 953 likely voters in the November 2016 General Election was conducted by Mitchell Research & Communications on Sunday night, October 30, 2016 and has a Margin of Error of + or - 3.17% at the 95% level of confidence.

“At this point, it doesn’t seem that the FBI announcement has had much impact on the race, although there has been movement with some demographics.  Trump voters say they are less likely to vote for Clinton based on the announcement while Clinton voters say they are more likely.  Both Trump and Clinton lost a point while Johnson and Stein posted very small increases.  Clinton still leads, but it will take a few more days to see how the Comey announcement will impact the campaign,” Steve Mitchell, CEO of Mitchell Research & Communications said.

In terms of key demographics:

Clinton’s lead with women (49%-42%) is about the same as last Tuesday when it was 8 percent (49%-41%).  She has increased her lead with men to 6 percent (45%-39%).

Clinton’s support with 18-44 year olds is down to 5 percent (41%-36%) because 12% are voting for Johnson and 4% for Stein.  In a two-way ballot test, she leads by 12% with that demographic. Trump is tied with 45-64 year olds at 47% but Clinton is still stronger with 65 and older voters, although her margin has dropped from is back out to 19 percent (56%-37).
 
Page 2 FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell Poll 10/31/16

Clinton is stronger with Democrats (88% in the four-way) than Trump is with Republicans (86% in the four-way).  Trump continues to have a strong lead with Independents (50%-34%).

By race, Trump leads with white voters (46%-41%).  Clinton leads with African-Americans (81%-13%) and with other ethnic groups (61%-28%).

By area, Clinton leads in the city of Detroit (76%-18%) and Outstate (47%-37%) while Trump has a taken a 12 percent lead over Clinton in the Tri-County area (51%-39%).

Other key findings:
• Both Clinton (40% Favorable-54% Unfavorable) and Trump (38%-57%) are unpopular.  Clinton’s favorable has dropped 5% and Trump’s 2% since our last poll.   
• When asked if it was true or false that FBI Director Comey had announced a review of Anthony Weiner’s emails to see if there was a connection to the Clinton email investigation, two-thirds of the voters (66%) said it was true while 15% said false and 19% were not sure. 
• In a follow-up question, voters were read a description of what had occurred and 45% were more likely to vote for her when they heard of the investigation and 41% less likely.  Clinton voters were standing by their candidate while Trump voters said the issue made them less likely.  It will take a few more days before we see the actual fall-out of the scandal. 

The questions on the Comey letter to Congress were as follows:

Is the following statement true or false?  On Friday, FBI Director James Comey  informed leaders in Congress that the FBI was going to review emails that may be related to the Clinton email case that were found as a result of a separate investigation.  If that is true press 1, false press 2, if you’re not sure press 3.       True   66%
False   15
Not sure  19

On Friday, FBI Director James Comey informed leaders in Congress that the FBI was going to review emails in the Clinton email case that were found as a result of a separate investigation.  News reports said thousands of emails related to the Clinton investigation were found on a computer Anthony Weiner shared with his wife, key Clinton aide Huma Abedin.  Weiner is being investigated for sending sexually explicit photos of himself to a 15 year old girl from his computers.  He and Abedin separated after she found out about Weiner’s alleged crime. 

It is not known if these emails were new, or if they were already seen before.  However, the new information was significant enough for Comey to let Congress know that the FBI was going to seek a search warrant to review them. 

Does this information make you much more likely, a little more likely, a little less likely, or much less likely to vote for Hillary Clinton for president? 

If it makes you much more likely press 1, a little more likely press 2, a little less likely press 3, much less likely press 4, if you’re not sure press 5.          Much more likely    37%             Little more likely     8  Little less likely     6 Much less likely   36, Not sure    12

“Trump continues to stay close, but Clinton is still in a strong position to win Michigan,” Mitchell concluded. 

Methodology:

Mitchell Research & Communications used a sample of registered voters in the November 2016 Michigan General Election.  Our goal is to spread as wide a net as possible to assure we survey voters who may not have voted in elections for a long time.  A double filter was used to determine that we were surveying only likely voters.
• First voters had to say they were registered voters.  If they were not, the phone call ended.
• Then, they were asked if they were definitely voting, probably voting, not sure yet, or definitely not voting in the November General Election, or if they already voted by absentee ballot.  If they were “definitely not voting” the phone call ended. 

Federal law only permits us to call land lines when using automated phoning.  Any surveys that doesn’t specify if they use cell phones do not use them.  Data is weighted to reflect likely voter turnout by gender, age, and race.

(Steve Mitchell is CEO of Mitchell Research & Communications, an East Lansing, Michigan based national polling and consulting company.  He is currently political pollster for FOX 2 Detroit.  He has polled with great accuracy for the media in Michigan, South Carolina, Florida, Missouri, Illinois, and California.  An examination of RealClearPolitics.com will show that in final polls before the election in races for president, U.S. Senator and governor in Michigan, his final poll results have been off by an average of only 2.75% from actual results 2008-2014.
Mitchell can be reached at 248-891-2414; stevemitchell40@gmail.com; @stevemitchell40 on Twitter)

 

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