FOX 2 Mitchell Poll: Clinton's lead up to 7 percent over Trump

EAST LANSING, Michigan --- Despite two major Trump rallies in the Grand Rapids and Detroit areas yeserday, the latest Fox 2 Detroit/Mitchell Poll of Michigan shows former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s lead over Donald Trump has moved from 6 percent to 7 percent in the four-way ballot question that includes Libertarian Party candidate former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Dr. Jill Stein.  In the four-way race it is Clinton 50% - Trump 43% - Johnson 4% - Stein 1% while 3% are undecided.  The two-way race is closer with Clinton leading Trump 51%-45%.  The lead is smaller primarily because of rounding; the margin in the two-way race is 6.6%. 

The IVR (automated) poll of 737 likely voters in the November 2016 General Election was conducted by Mitchell Research & Communications on Monday night, October 31, 2016 and has a Margin of Error of + or - 3.61% at the 95% level of confidence.

“Clinton is now at 50% and she expanded her lead again last night.  At this point, it doesn’t seem that the FBI announcement has had much impact on the race, although undecided voters seem to be more concerned than they were Sunday night. Voters seem to have backed off the third party candidates and moved towards the two major party candidates as Clinton moved up 3 percent and Trump gained 2 percent.  Clinton is still in a strong position to win Michigan’s 16 electoral votes,” Steve Mitchell, CEO of Mitchell Research & Communications said.

In terms of key demographics:

Clinton’s lead with women (52%-42%) increased by 3 percent since Sunday (49%-42%), however she lost ground with men where her lead has been cut to 4 percent (48%-44%).

Clinton has big leads with 18-44 year olds (53%-41%) and 65+ voters (62%-35%), but she trails with 45-64 year old voters (50%-40%).  Younger voters seem to have moved away from Johnson and Stein, which is why her lead is greater with that group than it was Sunday night. 

Both Clinton and Trump are getting exactly 91.2% of their party’s vote in the four-way ballot test.  But, Trump has an almost 2:1 lead with ticket-splitters (49%-26%). 

By race, Trump leads with white voters (48%-45%) while Clinton leads with African-Americans (81%-16%) and with other ethnic groups (46%-29%).

By area, Clinton leads in the city of Detroit (86%-11%) and in the Tri-County area (Wayne outside of Detroit/Oakland/Macomb) (50-43%) while Trump leads outside the metro Detroit area (47%-45%). 

Other key findings:
• Clinton is more popular than Sunday (40% Favorable-54% Unfavorable) with her favorable having increased 6% (46%-48%) while Trump also saw his favorable move to 2 percent to 40%-56%.   On Sunday it was (38%-57%.   
• When asked if it was true or false that FBI Director Comey had announced a review of Anthony Weiner’s emails to see if there was a connection to the Clinton email investigation, three-fourths of the voters (73%) now say that’s true compared to two-thirds of the voters (66%) who said it was true Sunday night.  Only 8% say it is a false statement while 19% are not sure.   
• In a follow-up question, voters were read a description of what had occurred and 45% were more likely to vote for her when they heard of the investigation and 43% less likely.  Clinton voters were standing by their candidate while Trump voters said the issue made them less likely.  It will still take a few more days before we see the actual fall-out of the scandal, but it does not appear to have changed the race.   

The questions on the Comey letter to Congress were as follows:

Is the following statement true or false?  On Friday, FBI Director James Comey  informed leaders in Congress that the FBI was going to review emails that may be related to the Clinton email case that were found as a result of a separate investigation.  If that is true press 1, false press 2, if you’re not sure press 3.
      
True   73%
False   15
Not sure  19

On Friday, FBI Director James Comey informed leaders in Congress that the FBI was going to review emails in the Clinton email case that were found as a result of a separate investigation.  News reports said thousands of emails related to the Clinton investigation were found on a computer Anthony Weiner shared with his wife, key Clinton aide Huma Abedin.  Weiner is being investigated for sending sexually explicit photos of himself to a 15 year old girl from his computers.  He and Abedin separated after she found out about Weiner’s alleged crime.  It is not known if these emails were new, or if they were already seen before.  However, the new information was significant enough for Comey to let Congress know that the FBI was going to seek a search warrant to review them. 

Does this information make you much more likely, a little more likely, a little less likely, or much less likely to vote for Hillary Clinton for president?  If it makes you much more likely press 1, a little more likely press 2, a little less likely press 3, much less likely press 4, if you’re not sure press 5.  

Much more likely    37%           
Little more likely     8
Little less likely     6
Much less likely   37
Not sure    12

“Polling on Halloween night is sometimes different than other nights, so we will find out tonight whether or not the Comey investigation or the Trump visits yesterday will have an impact.  Unless the narrative changes for Trump, Clinton is in a strong position to win Michigan,” Mitchell concluded. 

Methodology:

Mitchell Research & Communications used a sample of registered voters in the November 2016 Michigan General Election.  Our goal is to spread as wide a net as possible to assure we survey voters who may not have voted in elections for a long time.  A double filter was used to determine that we were surveying only likely voters.
• First voters had to say they were registered voters.  If they were not, the phone call ended.
• Then, they were asked if they were definitely voting, probably voting, not sure yet, or definitely not voting in the November General Election, or if they already voted by absentee ballot.  If they were “definitely not voting” the phone call ended. 

Federal law only permits us to call land lines when using automated phoning.  Any surveys that doesn’t specify if they use cell phones do not use them.  Data is weighted to reflect likely voter turnout by gender, age, and race.

(Steve Mitchell is CEO of Mitchell Research & Communications, an East Lansing, Michigan based national polling and consulting company.  He is currently political pollster for FOX 2 Detroit.  He has polled with great accuracy for the media in Michigan, South Carolina, Florida, Missouri, Illinois, and California.  An examination of RealClearPolitics.com will show that in final polls before the election in races for president, U.S. Senator and governor in Michigan, his final poll results have been off by an average of only 2.75% from actual results 2008-2014.
Mitchell can be reached at 248-891-2414; stevemitchell40@gmail.com; @stevemitchell40 on Twitter)

 

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