FOX 2 MItchell Poll: Clinton's lead cut to 3 percent over Trump in Michigan

EAST LANSING, Michigan --- Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s lead has been cut to 3 percent in Michigan as a result of losing support among men and 65 and older women, according to the latest Fox 2 Detroit/Mitchell Poll of Michigan.  In the four-way ballot question that includes Libertarian Party candidate former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Dr. Jill Stein, it is Clinton 47% - Trump 44% - Johnson 4% - Stein 3% while 3% are undecided.  Clinton has a 5 percent lead in the two-way race (49%-44%).   

The IVR (automated) poll of 887 likely voters in the November 2016 General Election was conducted by Mitchell Research & Communications on Tuesday night, November 1, 2016 and has a Margin of Error of + or - 3.29% at the 95% level of confidence.

“Clinton has suffered erosion as 65 + women moved dramatically away from her last night and towards Trump," said Steve Mitchell, CEO of Mitchell Research & Communications. "We had seen a similar change in men and women 45-64 the previous night.  She has also dropped 5% among Democrats.  Trump leads with men now, after trailing Clinton yesterday.  A direct question on Comey’s new review of Anthony Wiener’s emails and its impact on the race seemed to show it was not hurting Clinton. 

"However, the combined pressure on Clinton over the Wiki leaks, the Clinton Foundation, and other problems are clearly now impacting her candidacy.  She dropped 3 percent from last night, erasing the same gains she had made the night before, and Trump gained 1 percent.  Clearly Clinton’s problems are now taking a toll on her candidacy in Michigan and the state is now in play."

In terms of key demographics:

Clinton’s lead with all women dropped 2 percent to 50%-42%, about where it was Sunday night  (49%-42%).  Her 4 percent lead with men is gone and she now trails Trump (46%-44%) with that demographic. 

Clinton has lost ground with 18-44 year olds (45%-39%), down from a 12 percent lead the night before (53%-41%). Thirteen percent of the younger voters are now voting for either Johnson (6%) or Stein (7%). Her huge lead with 65+ voters (62%-35%) yesterday has been cut to 15 percent (55%-41%).  Trump’s lead with 45-64 year old voters two nights ago (50%-40%) dropped 5 percent last night (48%-43%). 

Two nights ago both Clinton and Trump were getting exactly 91.2% of their party’s vote in the four-way ballot test.   Last night, Clinton’s support with Democrats dropped to 86% while Trump’s stayed about the same (91.5%).  Two nights ago, Trump had an almost 2:1 lead with ticket-splitters (49%-26%), that increased last night to almost 4:1 (60%-16%). 

By race, Trump leads with white voters (48%-41%), up from two nights ago (48%-45%) while Clinton leads with African-Americans (83%-14%) and with other ethnic groups (55%-38%).

By area, Clinton leads in the city of Detroit (94%-6%).  Trump now leads in the Tri-County area (Wayne outside of Detroit/Oakland/Macomb) (49%-45%) and outside the metro Detroit area (45%-44%). 

Other key findings:
• Clinton’ popularity stayed the same last night as it was the previous night (40% Favorable-54% Unfavorable).  Trump’s favorable dropped a point and his unfavorable went up a point to 39%-55%.     

“Small gains by Trump and losses for Clinton have changed this race from a solid lead for the former Secretary of State to a tight race.  The narrative has changed in the race as Trump stays on message while Clinton stays on the defensive,” Mitchell concluded. 

Methodology:

Mitchell Research & Communications used a sample of registered voters in the November 2016 Michigan General Election.  Our goal is to spread as wide a net as possible to assure we survey voters who may not have voted in elections for a long time.  A double filter was used to determine that we were surveying only likely voters.
• First voters had to say they were registered voters.  If they were not, the phone call ended.
• Then, they were asked if they were definitely voting, probably voting, not sure yet, or definitely not voting in the November General Election, or if they already voted by absentee ballot.  If they were “definitely not voting” the phone call ended. 

Federal law only permits us to call land lines when using automated phoning.  Any surveys that doesn’t specify if they use cell phones do not use them.  Data is weighted to reflect likely voter turnout by gender, age, and race.

(Steve Mitchell is CEO of Mitchell Research & Communications, an East Lansing, Michigan based national polling and consulting company.  He is currently political pollster for FOX 2 Detroit.  He has polled with great accuracy for the media in Michigan, South Carolina, Florida, Missouri, Illinois, and California.  An examination of RealClearPolitics.com will show that in final polls before the election in races for president, U.S. Senator and governor in Michigan, his final poll results have been off by an average of only 2.75% from actual results 2008-2014.
Mitchell can be reached at 248-891-2414; stevemitchell40@gmail.com; @stevemitchell40 on Twitter)


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