Big snow storm looms for SE Michigan and reminds us: winter is still here

Well, here we go.  We almost made it out of winter without a big snow storm but it’s looking like a good bet we are going to get one starting tomorrow.  A Winter Storm Watch is still in effect (until it inevitably gets upgraded).  Let’s jump right into it and talk timing first.

*Wednesday morning 5AM – 10AM: Rain starts falling for most of SE MI.  While temps are low, we may see wet, heavy snow west of Ann Arbor & Flint.
*Wednesday afternoon 10AM – 6PM:  Rain continues for a lot of us, but as colder air moves in, some of that rain starts switching to snow.  The transition happens West to East.
*Wednesday night 7PM – Midnight: All rain changes to wet, heavy snow.
* Thursday morning – afternoon: Snow continues to fall and piles up.

 

The tough part of this forecast is forecasting *when* the rain will change to snow.  This obviously directly impacts the overall snow totals for Wed/Thu.  So, for the sake of understanding what is at play I’ve laid out two scenarios for you.  Scenario 1 is what we’d see if the transition to snow happened faster (more snow) and scenario 2 is if the transition happens later (less snow).

So, which one do I think is more accurate?  I’m leaning toward scenario 1, which is the more snow option.  Would I be surprised if it was actually closer to scenario 2?  Nope.  In fact, Alan Longstreet and I have been discussing all day long that that might actually be what happens.  I’ll be honest, it’s always a tough forecast when the transition line is right on top of us.

SCENARIO 1:

SCENARIO 2:

But the bottom line is this: Wednesday night, Thursday morning and Thursday afternoon all have a high chance of being very messy around here.  Snow, possible ice and rain will impact commutes and possibly schools.  Power outages could occur as well as winds gust to near 40 mph.

Stay tuned to Fox 2 over the next few days whether it’s via the TV, Facebook or Twitter. 

 

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