Pollsters: What Went Wrong?
(WJBK) - It wasn't even close.
Going into Tuesday's primary election, virtually every credible pollster had Hillary Clinton trouncing Bernie Sanders by as much as 25 or more points. So when the AP called the race at 11:30 Tuesday night and gave it to the underdog, the pollsters and pundits were left to figure out what went wrong.
EPIC-MRA pollster Bernie Porn joins the day-after analysis by saying everyone missed the record turnout and the volume of younger voters flocking to Mr. Sanders. Mr. Porn says in the run-up to the balloting, he bumped up his citizen turnout number but missed the actual 2.4 million figure by a country mile.
On top of that other factors were at work that resulted in the upset win for the Vermont Senator.
Turn out in Detroit was lower than usual. In a mayoral election you can expect about 36% to vote. Tuesday night the number was 25%. And as you sift the African-American vote a CNN exit poll expert discovered an age gap with older Blacks sticking with Ms. Clinton but younger voters, who did not have the long term relationship with the Clinton family covering 24 years in Michigan, sided with Mr. Sanders.
Passion was another dominant factor. Mr. Porn tells MIRS, ""I think there is clearly more passion in the Bernie presentation that there is in her's...that is the biggest and weakest link in the presentation of Hillary."
While the former Secretary of State was doing well with the traditional Democratic base, even winning Wayne, Oakland and Macomb Counties, that was not enough to counteract the strong showing the challenger racked up in the rest of the state. You also need to consider i the independent voters who chose him over her and union workers did not flock to Ms. Clinton either.
"The trade issue" was important Mr. Porn reflects referencing the Sander's commercials and his remarks during the Flint debate on Sunday night. He was against all trade agreements, she was not.
Another interesting angle was the length of their messages when speaking to the voters. Some have pointed to the exchange on fracking. Ms. Clinton gave what Mr. Porn called a nuanced answer that went on and on. When he was asked if he supported it, Mr. Sanders simply said, "No." Millennials like that, he explains.
Even though Mr. Sanders has been active in politics for years, Mr. Porn thinks he is still able to tap into the anti-establishment vote just as Mr. Trump has done. "I think that was attractive to voters much more than Hillary who was received as being more establishment."
And two final elements came into play as independent voters flocked to him and some polling firms, not EPIC-MRA, relied on automatic calling surveys which excludes cell phone users which may explain why so many younger voters, who have never owned a land-line, may have been cut out of the polling process.