Hurricane Melissa: Powerful, sprawling storm expected to make landfall in Jamaica on Tuesday

(FOX 2) - Hurricane Melissa has exploded into one of the most powerful storms ever observed in the Atlantic Basin—a sprawling, violent, 400-mile-wide vortex with sustained winds of 175 mph and gusts easily exceeding that. 

Its central pressure has plunged to around 900 millibars, a sign of near-record intensity. At that pressure, Melissa’s eye is literally lifting and removing about 15% of the atmosphere above it—a level of energy release that’s hard to even comprehend.

NOAA’s hurricane hunters—veteran crews who routinely fly into the planet’s worst weather—had to abort their data mission early Monday because of extreme turbulence. That almost never happens. These aircraft are reinforced for hurricane penetration, but Melissa’s violent updrafts and rapid pressure changes pushed even their limits. It’s a rare sign that a storm’s internal dynamics are simply too fierce to safely measure.

Big picture view:

This storm now sits in rarefied company. In terms of sustained wind, Melissa ranks as the 10th strongest hurricane in Atlantic history, joining a list that includes the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane, Gilbert (1988), Wilma (2005), Allen (1980), and Dorian (2019). For context, Hurricane Katrina peaked at 175 mph before weakening slightly at landfall, Hurricane Andrew reached 165 mph in 1992 when it devastated South Florida, and last year’s Hurricane Milton topped out near 150 mph. Melissa’s power exceeds them all in raw wind speed—more reminiscent of the ultra-intense Category 5s of the past century.

The storm’s structure is massive. From one end to the other, Melissa spans roughly 400 miles—larger than the entire country of Jamaica, which lies directly in its path. The island’s 2.8 million residents are facing a once-in-a-generation hurricane. Rainfall projections call for 10 to 20 inches across most of the island, with isolated mountain totals over 25 inches. 

Flash flooding and mudslides are a certainty in Jamaica’s interior. Along the southern coast, the National Hurricane Center warns of storm surge up to 20 feet, with destructive waves on top of that. Coastal communities could see water levels rise higher than rooftops.

Science behind the storm:

The atmosphere surrounding Melissa is a perfect storm of physics. Warm Caribbean waters—running nearly 2 degrees above normal—are feeding explosive convection around the eyewall. The storm’s tight, circular symmetry and deep outflow bands are textbook signs of an efficiently ventilating hurricane. Essentially, Melissa is breathing better than any storm should be able to.

But amid all this meteorological awe lies a somber side story. As the storm intensified so rapidly, birds were caught inside the developing eye, trapped in a calm but closed-off pocket of sky. With hurricane-force winds roaring around them, there’s no escape. They’ll keep flying in endless circles until exhaustion takes over—a tragic but natural consequence of the hurricane’s sheer power.

Comparisons to history help frame just how extreme this is. Wilma (2005) still holds the record for the lowest Atlantic pressure at 882 mb, but Melissa isn’t far behind—and its wind field is larger. Katrina caused unprecedented flooding through storm surge, but Melissa’s surge projections for Jamaica are in that same catastrophic range. Andrew remains a benchmark for structural damage in small, compact hurricanes; Melissa is the opposite—a giant, sprawling engine capable of affecting entire regions.

What's next:

What happens over the next few hours will determine whether Melissa becomes one of the top five most intense Atlantic hurricanes ever recorded. Either way, this is a defining moment for meteorology—and a terrifying one for anyone in its path.

For the people of Jamaica, the time for preparation is over. The outer eyewall is already approaching, and the full force of one of the strongest storms in recorded Atlantic history is about to arrive.

Watch FOX 2 News Live