Who leads 2026 Texas Senate race? Paxton vs. Talarico poll tracker

Loading Video…

This browser does not support the Video element.

2026 Election: National Voter Registration Day

Tuesday is National Voter Registration Day ahead of the Nov. 3 general election. Celia Israel, Travis County tax assessor-collector and voter registrar, joins Good Day Austin's Dave Froehlich to discuss.

Polls have shown the hotly contested U.S. Senate race in Texas is in a dead heat.

What we know:

Republican and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton faces Democrat and state Rep. James Talarico for the seat currently held by U.S. Sen. John Cornyn.

The chart below shows the results of various non-partisan public polling as reported by the Texas Politics Project and FOX Local.

What you should know about this chart

Each poll was conducted independently and may differ in its voter sample, methodology, question wording and candidate choices. Values between the plotted points were not measured. Apparent rises or falls may reflect differences between polls rather than actual changes in voter support. The latest point represents the newest individual poll, not a consensus estimate or forecast.

Some polls included Libertarian Ted Brown as a response option, while others asked only about Paxton and Talarico. Candidate percentages therefore are not directly comparable in every case.

Polls are arranged chronologically, but the horizontal spacing between points does not represent the amount of time between surveys. Polls with overlapping field periods are separate observations. Their placement next to one another should not be read as sequential movement.

Talarico vs. Paxton: Who has the better plan to lower costs?

In a Texas Senate race defined by the rising cost of everyday life, Ken Paxton and James Talarico are offering voters different approaches to affordability. Paxton is proposing new tax deductions, an expanded Child Tax Credit and permanent "Trump Accounts," while Talarico is calling for higher wages, expanded tax credits and tougher action against corporations he says are contributing to higher prices.

Previous coverage of Texas U.S. Senate race polling

When can I vote?

Early voting in Texas begins Oct. 19. Election Day is Nov. 3. Polling locations vary by county, so consult your local elections agency for that information.

The Source: Information in this story came from the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin and previous FOX Local reporting. AI was used to help write the "What you should know" section of this story.

ElectionTexas2026 ElectionsPoliticsNewsNews