When will leaves change in Michigan? Fall colors forecast

It’s technically still summer, but plenty of us are already thinking about fall. 

But Michigan’s weather the last few weeks will impact the way we’re used to seeing the changing of the season. 

Summer drought

Big picture view:

According to data from the U.S. drought monitor, 40% of the nation was considered to be in drought throughout the beginning of September. 

Local perspective:

Here in southeast Michigan, we went through the 20th warmest summer of all time, and it was in the top 30% of driest summers. 

Fall leaves in Michigan

The hot, dry weather of the summer isn’t doing the fall colors any favors. 

What they're saying:

Luke Brunner, an ISA Board Certified Master Arborist, told us we’ll see darker colors, more brown leaves and empty smaller trees. 

Dig deeper:

Healthy trees heading into fall, adequate moisture throughout the summer, cool nights and sunny days in early autumn can all help produce vibrant fall colors, according to FOX Weather. 

That means smaller trees are more likely to feel and show the stress from the drier summer, but bigger trees have a better chance of keeping their normal timeline. 

Bottom line:

"We’re going to have (color from) our maples and our oaks, which are just drowned into the ground, and they are just going to be able to handle it. We’ll still see that October peak," Brunner said. 

But in the meantime – we’ll be seeing a lot of brown, crispy leaves already on the ground.

Outside of Michigan, the Farmers’ Almanac said parts of the interior West, Northern Plains, central U.S. and northern New England could have a more hit-or-miss leaf-peeping season. Color will still be visible, but just may not be as widespread or long-lasting. 

READ MORE: Best time to see fall colors in the Midwest: Maps

Timeline:

True fall colors in Detroit are expected to start peaking out around Oct. 5, according to the fall foliage tracking site, Explore Fall.