Was Iran's attack on US air base in Qatar a sign of de-escalation?

DETROIT (FOX 2) - On Monday, the Iranian government ordered a retaliatory attack on U.S. bases over the weekend, but it's believed that the attack is an attempt to de-escalate the situation between the two countries.

Around 12:30 p.m. ET, Iran attacked Al Udeid Air Base, a key U.S. facility in the Mideast. The Iranian strike involved at least six missiles and came after Qatar announced the closure of its airspace on Monday, with top Iranian officials vowing consequences for President Donald Trump's weekend strike on the nation's nuclear program.

No casualties were reported in either strike.

What we know:

Iranian state media announced that the military response had begun, dubbing the attack "Operation Fatah's Blessing."

Officials made the announcement on state television as martial music played. A caption on screen called it "a mighty and successful response by the armed forces of Iran to America’s aggression."

The Defense Department confirmed the base was attacked by short-range and medium-range ballistic missiles and said nobody was killed.

Iran's missiles matched the same number used by the United States during Sunday morning's attack on nuclear sites over the weekend. This symbolic move is believed to be a signal that Iran wants to de-escalate tensions.

What they're saying:

Oakland University Political Science Chair, Dr. Peter Trumbore, said the actions by Iran were measured and even included a warning that the attack was happening – which was the same move Iran did in 2020. 

"The Iranian response was very measured," he said. 

"They gave advanced warning to the Qatari government that an attack was coming," he said. "The Qatari government was alerted that Iran was gonna fire on the base. Most of the personnel at this base were evacuated in the days leading up. And the fact that they fired the same number of missiles as the number of bombs that we dropped on the nuclear sites, I think together those things signal that Iran is looking to de-escalate. Now that they've retaliated, they've sort of done their due diligence, so to speak, I think now they're hoping for a de-escalation."

Iran has insisted for decades that its nuclear program is peaceful. However, its officials increasingly threaten to pursue a nuclear weapon. Iran has the ability to enrich the purity of uranium and stockpile it. 

Why Iran matters:

The United States has tried for the past 20 years to eliminate Iran's nuclear ambitions. Dr. Trumbore said he doesn't believe there was new intel – just a new opportunity.

"Prior administrations including Donald Trump in his first term made the calculation that it was too risky to try how to use military force. To do this, but the combination of the weakening of Iran as a consequence of Israeli military action over the last two years, plus the 10-day long aerial war between Israel and Iran that's going on right now, I think the combination of those things encouraged the Trump administration to decide that now was gonna be a safer opportunity to use military force against Iran compared to the situation even a few years ago," he said.

There are nine countries in the world that have created a nuclear weapon, which includes Iran, who have signed on to join the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). The NPT is intended to prevent the creation of more nuclear weapons, promote cooperation in uses of nuclear energy, and has a goal of nuclear disarmament.

The International Atomic Energy Agency has inspectors on the ground in Iran to ensure the country is compliant. But Iran could kick them out.

"You're not going to eliminate the totality of Iran's nuclear potential with just a series of airstrikes. It's too well dispersed, it's too protected, and there was sufficient advance warning that over the days leading up to the American attack. There was a lot of activity at those Iranian sites, apparently moving both equipment and highly enriched uranium out and dispersing those things to other facilities around the country," he said.

Dr. Trumbore said the moves by the United States are not putting an end to the Iranian program.

"I think this idea that somehow we've ended the potential nuclear capability of Iran in the future, I think is probably false. We may have set them back a number of years, but I think the idea that we've ended it once and for all is mistaken. 

U.S. pilots dropped 30,000-pound bombs early Sunday on two key underground uranium enrichment plants in Iran. American sailors bolstered the surprise mission by firing dozens of cruise missiles from a submarine toward at least one other site.

Dubbed Operation Midnight Hammer, U.S. officials say the plan was characterized by a "precision strike" that "devastated the Iranian nuclear program," even as they acknowledged an assessment was ongoing.

There are questions whether President Trump followed the Constitution in his orders to attack Iran but Dr. Trumbore said previous administrations have taken similar actions without consulting Congress.

"There's a difference between taking proper precautions and getting advice and following the rule of law, the letter of the law, the Constitution, and the War Powers Act. And who he talked to and who he took advice from, we still don't know. What we do know is that the actions that the president ordered were done without congressional approval," he said. "When Barack Obama used military force against Libya back in 2011, Republicans claimed that it was an authorized and an illegal use of force, and Democrats applauded it and said everything was fine, and now we have a Republican president doing the same thing, and Republicans are saying everything is fine and Democrats, for the most part, are saying that this was wrong and illegitimate."

The Oakland professor says Trump's actions conflict with what he said he would do, when he campaigned.

"If we keep going and if the Iranians keep going, then I think that there are some potential hazards politically for the Trump administration. We have to remember he ran as a so-called peace president. He ran claiming that he was going to keep America out of foreign wars, especially out of wars in the Middle East. And here we have him launching a new war in the Middle East on his own. So whether that comes back to bite him, we will just have to wait and see,' Dr. Trumbore said.

In the end, Dr. Trumbore said he does not believe we're on the edge of World War III.

"I think the combination of the two things -- that the mathematical matching of warhead for warhead is one signal, and the other was the advance notice that the Iranians gave the Qatari government that this retaliation was imminent. I think you put those two things together, and that suggests that Iran needed to retaliate, needed to show both its domestic audience, but also the rest of the world, that it wasn't just going to sit back and ignore what happened," he said. "I don't think we're on the verge of World War III at this point. That doesn't mean that we should not be paying attention. I think in the long run, and even in the short term, I think the administration's actions over the weekend have made both the region less secure, by that I mean the Middle East, and have made Americans less secure abroad and frankly here at home."

What's next:

The White House has not yet issued a response to the attacks.