Fortress Russia, fragile peace: Dr. Retish warns on Article 5 'illusion' after Trump-Putin summit

THE INTERVIEW| Could a failed Ukraine deal precipitate World War III? Historian: not likely, but 'we’re in a dangerous position geopolitically'

Wayne State University historian Dr. Aaron Retish spoke with Hilary Golston about the fallout from the Trump Putin summit, NATO in flux, and why Ukraine’s future hangs in the balance. Retish says a failed deal is unlikely to trigger World War III, but warns the world is entering a dangerously unstable moment.

DETROIT (FOX 2) - A high-stakes summit in Alaska has left Ukraine balancing on uncertain ground, offered Article 5-like guarantees without full NATO membership, a compromise designed to appease Moscow while placating the West.

Dr. Aaron Retish, a Wayne State University specialist in late Imperial and Soviet history, spoke with Hilary Golston about the challenges facing Ukraine as promises of security assurances and new weapons flow from the United States. "For Russia, Ukraine cannot be a part of NATO," he said. "For the Kremlin this was one of the key reasons why it invaded, because Putin sees the West encroaching upon Russia. Ukrainian entry into NATO would just be further encroachment into Russian sovereignty. This is trying to thread the needle, security guarantees and appeasing Russia."

Dr. Retish noted that NATO itself is in transition. "NATO is in a time of flux, where the United States is clearly trying to diminish its role in western Europe and look towards the east," he said. Neither Donald Trump nor Vladimir Putin, he added, "believe strongly in international law or the specifics of these collective agreements."

There’s a parallel to be drawn between Ukraine’s predicament and Cold War era Finland, which was sovereign yet heavily influenced by Moscow. "That is certainly a possibility, where Russia tries to force Zelenskyy out or pushes for a pro-Russian candidate," he said. "This gets at a larger issue that Putin talked about at the summit, the root causes of the war in Ukraine, which is essentially that Ukraine exists."

Still, Dr. Retish warned of resistance. "There would be pushback from European countries against Russian cultural and political incursions," he said.

Economically, Russia has so far defied expectations. "We have been surprised by this fortress Russia," Dr. Retish said. "They’ve been able to continue to have a viable economy for the past three years even with strong sanctions. They’ve done this not only because of the state but because of this grey market where the people and the state are able to move around sanctions."

Russia’s central bank, he noted, has helped stabilize the economy, but signs of strain are emerging. "Interest rates are going up in Russia, which is one of the signs there might be some destabilization. This is an economy on full wartime mobilization where the state is pumping cash into the economy to prop it up."

Moscow has leaned on buyers like China and India to offset Western restrictions. Dr. Retish suggested stronger sanctions could mean targeting Russian banks, pressuring Beijing, or imposing tariffs on Indian energy imports. "Economic sanctions take years to work, not months," he cautioned. "We’re playing a waiting game."

He also stressed that Russia is internationally isolated, "in many ways more isolated now than during the Cold War." Travel between Russia and the West has grown increasingly difficult. Yet he believes Putin may seek concessions to reenter the global order, whether through opening Arctic mineral markets, pledging not to interfere in Ukrainian politics, or even territorial withdrawals.

The stakes extend beyond Ukraine. "Russia’s invasion of Ukraine showed that national sovereignty can be violated and with success for the invading forces," Dr. Retish said. "That shows it can happen in China with Taiwan. Clearly there’s now precedent, and we should be worried about that."