AP-LH--APX-MI Lake Huron Area Forecast Discussion, LH
000
FXUS63 KAPX 151426
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1026 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2015
.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1016 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2015
NOT A WHOLE LOT GOING ON AT THE MOMENT WEATHERWISE EXCEPT FOR SOME
CLOUD ISSUES AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE AREA OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST ONTARIO...ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND ALSO
COVERING MUCH OF THE UPPER PENINSULA. THEREFORE...HAVE MADE AN
ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER AND FAR NORTHERN LOWER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...LOWED MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT WITH THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS LIKELY DIPPING
DOWN INTO THE LOWER 40S ONCE AGAIN (EVEN HAD A FEW UPPER 30S EARLY
THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2015
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE
FORECAST CHALLENGE: TIMING OF RAIN MOVING BACK INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.
(7/16)THURSDAY...MODELS SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE BREAKDOWN OF THE 500
MB RIDGE SIMILARLY, WITH THE SEEMINGLY FLAT RIDGE BEGINNING TO
BUCKLE AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES EAST AND THE RETURN FLOW STARTS IN THE
WEST THAT MORNING. PREVIOUS RUNS HELD OFF THE PRECIPITATION UNTIL
THE EVENING, BUT NOW THE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO INSIST THAT THE
MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND PRODUCE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE ONLY INSTABILITY WITH THIS IS THE 0-3 KM MU CAPES
SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
HOWEVER, SHOWALTER AND 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES ARE UNEXCITING. SO
HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH THE CHANCE OR LIKELY RAIN SHOWERS, AND SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER, AS THIS MAY TURN OUT TO BE MORE AN OVERRUNNING
RAIN RATHER THAN STRAIGHT CONVECTION. THE RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN BY
12Z.
(7/17)FRIDAY...ONCE THE SFC LOW IS INTO LAKE HURON AROUND 00Z, IT
LOOKS LIKE THE RAIN SHOULD BE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA, AND INTO
ONTARIO. THE NEXT SFC HIGH AND THE 500 MB RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION AND KEEP THINGS CLEARED OUT FOR THE DAY AND THROUGH THE
NIGHT. ALTHOUGH I SHOULD MENTION THAT THE GFS IS BEGINNING TO PUSH
SOME RAIN IN ALONG THE WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2015
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BEING THE TIMING OF THE RAIN OUT OF THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT, THEN BOTH MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE DRY WEATHER AGAIN. TEMPERATURE-WISE, WE WILL
AGAIN BE EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH THE
WARMEST BEING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHEN MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 644 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2015
...SOLID VFR...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DEEP DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO OVERTAKE NRN
MICHIGAN TODAY...WITH ONLY MINIMAL INCREASES IN MOISTURE THROUGH
TONIGHT. REALLY ONLY EXPECTING SOME THIN CIRRUS OVER THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH LATER TODAY FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF LAKE BREEZES FOR THE AFTERNOON....WITH CALM WINDS TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2015
WINDS WERE STILL GUSTING TO ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
LAKE HURON....GENERALLY SOUTH OF PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT. ISSUED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MID MORNING. OTHERWISE...WINDS WERE
DECREASING AS HIGHER PRESSURE CONTINUES TO APPROACH NORTHERN
MICHIGAN. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE MAKING IT EAST TONIGHT. LAKE BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON WILL
TURN LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL
INCREASE A BIT THURSDAY...BUT REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...AND
MAY ACTUALLY TEND ONSHORE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD
Delivered by Weather Underground Inc. Wed Jul 15 2015 10:26AM EDT