Mitchell Poll Results: Clinton Leads by 13% in Michigan before last debate
EAST LANSING, Michigan ---Before the final debate tonight, the latest Fox 2 Detroit/Mitchell
Poll of Michigan shows former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton leading businessman Donald
Trump by a 13 percent margin in a in a four-way race that includes Libertarian Party candidate
former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Dr. Jill Stein.
In the four-way race it is Clinton 51% -Trump 38% -Johnson 6% -Stein 2%, and 3% undecided. In a two-
way race it is Clinton 53% -Trump 41% with 6% undecided.
In the last FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell Poll conducted a week ago, Clinton’s lead was 10%.
The IVR (automated) poll of 1,102 likely voters in the November 2016 General Election was
conducted by Mitchell Research & Communications on October 18, 2016 and has a Margin of
Error of + or - 2.95% at the 95% level of confidence.
“Clinton’s lead has increased in the past week and she is in a strong position going into the last
debate tonight. Trump will have to do a great job, or Clinton will have to make a big mistake to
change the trajectory of this race in Michigan,” Steve Mitchell, CEO of Mitchell Research &
Communications said.
In terms of key demographics:
Clinton’s 17 percent lead (53%-36%) with women is almost identical to her 18 percent lead a
week ago, while Trump now trails with men by 9 percent (49%-40%).
Clinton leads by 25 percent with 18-44 year old voters (55%-30%) with 9% of that age group
voting for Johnson, and 3% for Stein. Clinton leads with 45-64 year olds (46%-44%) and with
65 + voters (54%-40%). Trump had strong gains among 45-64 year olds but had a big drop
with 18-44 year olds.
FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell Poll of Likely Voters
Conducted October 18, 2016
Clinton continues to be stronger with Democrats (94% in the four-way) than Trump is with
Republicans (87% in the four-way). Trump is now leading with Independents (42%-32%), about
where he was a week ago.
By race, Clinton leads with whites (48%-46%), African-Americans (80%-16%) and with other
ethnic groups (61%-31%).
By area, Clinton leads in the city of Detroit (82%-12%), in the Tri-County area (53%-41%) and
even Outstate (48%-45%).
Other key findings:
.
Both Clinton (46% Favorable-48% Unfavorable) and Trump (33%-61%) are unpopular.
However, for the first time, Clinton’s unfavorable is below 50 percent.
.
More people say jobs/economy (56%) is the most important issue in the presidential
campaign than say national defense/terrorism (32%). Twelve percent are undecided.
“Trump’s last chance is tonight if he is going to turn the race around, Clinton is now in a strong
position to win Michigan this year,” Mitchell concluded.
Methodology:
Mitchell Research & Communications used a sample of registered voters in the November 2016
Michigan General Election. Our goal is to spread as wide a net as possible to assure we survey
voters who may not have voted in elections for a long time. A double filter was used to
determine that we were surveying only likely voters.
First voters had to say they were registered voters. If they were not, the phone call ended.
Then, they were asked if they were definitely voting, probably voting, not sure yet, or definitely not voting in the November General Election, or if they already voted by absentee ballot. If they were “definitely not voting” the phone call ended.
Federal law only permits us to call land lines when using automated phoning. Any surveys that
doesn’t specify if they use cell phones do not use them. Data is weighted to reflect likely voter
turnout by gender, age, and race.
(Steve Mitchell is CEO of Mitchell Research & Communications, an East Lansing, Michigan
based national polling and consulting company. He is currently political pollster for FOX 2
Detroit. He has polled with great accuracy for the media in Michigan, South Carolina, Florida,
Missouri, Illinois, and California. An examination of RealClearPolitics.com will show that in final
polls before the election in races for president, U.S. Senator and governor in Michigan, his final
poll results have been off by an average of only 2.75% from actual results 2008-2014. Mitchell can be reached at stevemitchell40@gmail.com; @stevemitchell40 on Twitter.)