Former FBI agent doubts Mideast peace will last

THE INTERVIEW| Ex-FBI: If Hamas Survives, Hamas Wins — Mideast Peace at Risk

During an interview with Hilary Golston, Former FBI Special Agent Ken Gray warned the new Mideast peace deal may only be a ceasefire — not lasting peace. He says unless Hamas is dismantled, “Hamas will have won,” and the region could see renewed violence for years to come. Golston breaks down today's complicated topics each week on The Interview.

(FOX 2) - Former FBI Special Agent Ken Gray says the new Mideast peace deal is unlikely to bring lasting peace, warning that the agreement resembles a ceasefire more than a permanent solution.

Gray spoke with Hilary Golston Sunday as world leaders cautiously welcome a U.S.-brokered plan that has halted the fighting for now but left deeper political issues unresolved.

"At the end of the day, if Hamas continues to exist, then Hamas has won," Gray said. "October 7th will have been a success for Hamas. That’s why Prime Minister Netanyahu wanted to totally decimate Hamas."

The first phase of the peace plan, approved by Israel’s cabinet earlier this month, calls for a temporary ceasefire, the release of hostages, and a limited Israeli withdrawal from parts of Gaza. Hamas has agreed to exchange some Israeli captives for Palestinian prisoners, but negotiators have not reached a consensus on the long-term governance of Gaza or Hamas’s disarmament, two of the most critical and divisive points.

Gray cautioned that as long as Hamas retains power, the cycle of violence is likely to repeat. "Hamas needs to more or less surrender and Hamas doesn’t want to surrender," he said. "That’s why I think this is closer to a ceasefire than it is a long-term peace plan because I don’t see Hamas willingly laying down their arms."

He described the physical toll of the conflict as immense. "Most of the buildings have been destroyed or damaged. Most of the infrastructure has been destroyed or damaged," Gray said, adding that rebuilding could take "years to decades."

Reconstruction is expected to rely heavily on international aid, with early discussions involving the United States, the European Union, and Gulf states about overseeing financial assistance. But Gray believes leadership and coordination will be key. "Anything that happens in this area is going to take President Trump to lead," he said. "Turkey has the ability to become a major force in this area."

He noted that an international security force envisioned in earlier peace proposals could help manage sectarian tensions. "The question of sectarian violence within Gaza could be an issue," Gray said.

On international law, Gray dismissed the likelihood that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could face arrest under charges brought before the International Criminal Court. "The ICC has no effect on countries that have their own political and judicial system that is able to do investigations," he said. "In reality, they can’t arrest Benjamin Netanyahu because Israel has a functioning judicial system. Many of these charges are just political charges."

Gray also expressed skepticism about the prospects of curbing Iran’s influence. "The efforts have been made to try and deal with the threat of a nuclear Iran," he said. "Iran wants to be a nuclear power so that nobody can stop Iran from doing what it wants to do. I don’t know if they can achieve the separation of that from running this proxy network against Israel."

For now, the fragile truce appears to be holding. But with Israeli forces still positioned around parts of Gaza and Hamas maintaining underground command networks, analysts warn the situation could unravel quickly if either side perceives the other as violating terms of the deal.

Gray’s conclusion is stark. "The likelihood of this plan actually working out for long-term peace in this area is somewhat doubtful," he said. "If they [Hamas militants] rebuild and rearm, they’ll launch another attack."