If asked before the season which of these two teams would be at the bottom of its division before their Week 4 matchup, very, very, very few fans would have picked the Kansas City Chiefs instead of the Philadelphia Eagles.
Yet that's where we stand heading into Sunday, where the Chiefs are still heavy favorites. Here are the NFL odds on Chiefs vs. Eagles: the point spread, moneyline and total over/under, plus picks from our betting expert (with all odds via FOX Bet).
Kansas City Chiefs @ Philadelphia Eagles (1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)
Point spread: Chiefs -7 (Chiefs favored to win by more than 7 points, otherwise Eagles cover)
Total scoring over/under: 54 points scored by both teams combined
At what point does a trend stop being a statistical anomaly and start becoming an actionable piece of data you should factor into your betting? That's a question Chiefs bettors have faced for almost a full season now, as Kansas City is 1-12-1 against the spread in its past 14 games after an outright loss to the Chargers in Week 3.
In fact, the Chiefs are one of just four teams that haven't covered in 2021, joining the Jaguars, Jets and Washington, who have combined for one win.
Despite all that, a massive, massive majority of fans are backing Kansas City in Week 4. According to our insights, more than 90% of all bets against the spread in this game have been on the Chiefs, and more than 95% of all money wagered on the spread is behind Patrick Mahomes & Co. as well.
Unfortunately for Eagles fans, Philadelphia hasn't been much better at covering, with the Eagles 1-2 against the spread so far this season, matching their overall win-loss record.
Philly's strength in 2021, however, is its defense, ranked 10th in scoring and seventh in total defense, compared to a Chiefs squad that's T- 31st and 30th in those respective categories.
Will it be enough to slow a Chiefs team looking to get back on track? Let's ask our expert.
Pick via FOX Sports Betting Analyst Jason McIntyre: "This could be my biggest bet in the early part of the season. Look at who the Chiefs have faced: The Cleveland Browns to start the season. The Baltimore Ravens, another Super Bowl favorite. And last week, that loss to the Chargers.
"Those are three great teams. What were the Eagles in the preseason? Not a team anyone wanted to bet on. A low season win-total team.
"I think this is a smash spot for the Chiefs coming off of a loss at home."
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