AP-LS--MQT-MI Lake Superior Area Forecast Discussion, LS
000
FXUS63 KMQT 151201
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
801 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2015
RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPS OVERNIGHT HAS HELPED SOME FOG DEVELOP MAINLY
TO OUR SW /ASX TO LNL AND EGV/...WITH SOME TEMPORARY VIS
RESTRICTIONS EVEN SHOWING UP AT IWD AS TEMPS AND DEW POINTS FALL TO
45F. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AROUND SUNRISE.
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES OUR WEATHER. THE SFC HIGH STRETCHING FROM S
HUDSON BAY THROUGH ONTARIO...UPPER MI...N LOWER MI AND WI WILL BEGIN
ITS SLOW E TRACK TODAY...SHIFTING TO JAMES BAY E UPPER MI AND LOWER
MI BY 00Z THURSDAY. LIGHT WINDS AND LAKE BREEZES WILL BE THE RULE.
TEMPS OVER THE E HALF WILL BE 5-10F WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. EXPECT
MOST AREAS INLAND FROM THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES TO TOP OUT IN THE
70S. THE THIN HIGH CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE
DAY AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE NEARS FROM MUCH OF W CANADA AND THE PLAINS
STATES. CURRENT AND TEMPORARY THICKER CLOUDS TO OUR W ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE STRONG 500MB RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE NATION. THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR
CWA.
THE SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE FARTHER E TONIGHT...MAKING IT TO FAR S
QUEBEC THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY 12Z THURSDAY. THE BROAD LOW
TO OUR W WILL BECOME A BIT BETTER ORGANIZED WITH A STRONGER LOW
PUSHING OVER SW MN AND IA LATE IN THE PERIOD. BY 12Z THE FAR W
/INCLUDING LAKE SUPERIOR/ WILL BE FLIRTING WITH A SHOWERS...WITH
MUCH OF THE ENERGY WILL WELL TO OUR SW.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2015
A ZONAL PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED BY THIS WEEKEND AS A
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NRN ROCKIES AND DOWNSTREAM RDIGE DEVELOPS FROM
THE SRN PLAINS TO QUEBEC. WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WITH SRLY FLOW ON
SAT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA BY LATE SAT. SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES WILL AS A TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPROACH AND WILL CONTINUE
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS THE FRONT GRADUALLY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
SUN. COOLER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE WRN LAKES.
THU INTO THU NIGHT...THE REMNANTS OF THE SHRTWV THAT SUPPORTED THE
MCS OVER KS OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE THROUGH IA OR
SRN MN INTO WI AND TOWARD LOWER MI. ADDITIONAL TSRA SHOULD DEVELOP
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT MOVING INTO SRN WI. THERE MAY ALSO
BE SUPPORT FOR PCPN FARTHER NORTH...AS MODELS HINT SUGGEST A WEAK
SHRTWV MAY MOVE IN FROM THE NRN PLAINS. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF
HOW THE AREA OF SHRA/TSRA WILL EVOLVE IS LOW GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES
AND TYPICAL DIFFICULTY IN HANDLING LARGE AREAS OF CONVECTION.
ALTHOUGH THE GFS/GEM AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM BRING RAIN ACROSS MOST
OF UPPER MI...THE ECMWF HAS KEPT MOST OF THE PCPN SOUTH OF UPPER MI
WITH THE BEST CHANCE JUST ALONG THE SOUTH. SO...THE FCST CONTINUES
WITH CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH LIKELY MENTIONED OVER
THE S AND E. FCST MUCAPE VALUES WERE MARGINAL TO SUPPORT CONDITIONAL
MENTION OF MORE THAN ISOLD/SCT TSRA OVER THE SOUTH HALF.
FRI...SFC AND MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH DRY
WEATHER AFTER SOME LINGERING SHRA CHANCES EARLY...MAINLY OVER THE
ERN CWA. WITH INCREASING SUN BY AFTERNOON...HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB INTO
THE MID 70S.
SAT INTO SUN...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY LATE SAT WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHRTWVS EMERGING FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE INCREASINGLY
WARM HUMID AIRMASS AS TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE LOW 80S WITH DEWPOINTS
INTO THE MID 60S. THE ECMWF WAS FASTER WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH
ON SUN THAT WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 757 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2015
HIGH CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY LOWER AND THICKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS AND LOW PRESSURE NEARS FROM THE W. EXPECT LAKE
BREEZES TODAY AROUND 10KTS OR LESS TO SWITCH TO A S WIND REGIME
OVERNIGHT. VFR CEILINGS AND VIS EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2015
EXPECT WINDS TO BE LESS THAN 30KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SUMMER TIME THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN THIS WEEKEND. FOG COULD
BECOME A CONCERN MAINLY N FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SLOWLY DRIFT E THURSDAY...AS A
DEVELOPING LOW NEARS FROM THE PLAINS STATES. EXPECT THE LOW TO MOVE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO SE ONTARIO FRIDAY. A WEAK RIDGE
WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...
WHILE A TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE N PLAINS...TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER OVER S CENTRAL CANADA. THE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS THE LOW MOVES E ACROSS ONTARIO SUNDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KF
Delivered by Weather Underground Inc. Wed Jul 15 2015 8:01AM EDT