Trump leads Biden by 4% in Michigan but pollster thinks court cases could level playing field

Former President Donald Trump is projected to hold a 45 percent advantage in-state over current Commander in Chief Joe Biden's 41.

But if Trump is convicted in any of his four indictments he is currently battling, the numbers flip - making it a dead heat, say some experts.

"Much of what happens depends on what happens in the courtroom as much as what happens on the campaign trail," said longtime pollster Bernie Porn.

This spring Mr. Trump will be spending about six weeks in a courtroom as he battles to avoid a conviction that could damage him at the polls.

Porn says the outcome of the indictments could be a major factor in the neck-and-neck contest.

"That could be a game-changer by anywhere from three to five points," Porn said. "That is significant."

In other data, Biden is doing better with 68% of the Black vote, but still way below where he needs to be among African Americans, Porn said.

The outlook is murkier with projections for the all-important independent voters who will decide the next president.

"They are moving back to Biden but Trump still leads 38% to 32%," Porn said.

Biden is winning the female vote, but the numbers don't project a very robust lead.

"But not by the kind of numbers where they need to be, to improve Biden's numbers," he said.

Tim Skubick: "That was critical in his victory last time. Are you saying that is a question mark?"

"That is definitely a question mark at this juncture," Porn said.

Porn thinks the magic sauce may be Gov. Gretchen Whitmer commercials for Biden, because of her popularity.

"She can only help," he said.

And based on these polling numbers, he appears to need her help.