If you're a football fan in the slightest, you know that Sunday marks Tom Brady's return to New England for the first time as a member of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to face Bill Belichick and the Patriots.
And if you're looking for NFL odds and how to bet Buccaneers vs. Patriots on Sunday, here's what you need to know.
The drama around Sunday's game in Foxborough practically writes itself, at least when it comes to sport narratives. The question, however, is whether a Patriots team led by rookie Mac Jones can keep up with Touchdown Tom and the Bucs, who are now co-favorites to win the Super Bowl despite a Week 3 loss to the Rams.
As of Tuesday, the Bucs were 6.5-point favorites over the Patriots, but that spread of nearly a touchdown wasn't scaring off bettors. In fact, according to our insights, over 95% of all of spread bets on Sunday and Monday were on Tampa Bay, as was over 95% of all the money wagered.
Moreover, fans are apparently expecting a relatively high-scoring game, with more than 80% of bets on the scoring total have been on the "Over" of 48.5.
So where should you be looking to place your bets? For that, we turn to Colin Cowherd.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New England Patriots (8:20 p.m. ET Sunday, NBC)
Point spread: Buccaneers -6.5 (Buccaneers favored to win by more than 6.5 points, otherwise Patriots cover)
Total scoring over/under: 48.5 points scored by both teams combined
Pick via FOX Sports' Colin Cowherd: "Tom Brady is coming off a loss, and that Tampa defense got burnt.
"So that defense is going to be tight this week. There's going to be yelling and screaming from Todd Bowles. And you can't run the ball on Tampa with Vita Vea in the middle. So you are going to ask Mac Jones to throw it at least 38 to 42 times.
I do not like the spot at all for the Patriots. We have to come to terms with this. Bill Belichick at home against even average teams can't win games. Why? He doesn't have the QB play.
"This line is a ‘respect to Bill Belichick’ line. It feels like an 8- to 9-point line to me in reality. New England can only win one way – that is low scoring, 20-17. But you are not going to hold this Bucs offense to 17 points, and the Patriots are not built to exploit the injuries the Bucs have. They have no over-the-top component.
"This feels like a blowout to me. Let's not overthink the room here."
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