Michigan listed at 'high risk' for coronavirus outbreaks in latest research
COVID Act Now's map of the United States based on COVID risk level. Michigan has been moved from containing to at risk in the past two weeks. Image via COVID Act Now.
SOUTHFIELD, Mich. (FOX 2) - Just a few weeks ago, Michigan was one of two states touted as being on path to contain COVID-19. Now the state is has taken two steps backward in the attempt to stop the virus, according to COVID Act Now.
The team of technologists, epidemiologists, health experts, and public policy leaders working in partnership with several universities to identify each state's risk level for the spread of the virus.
There are four categories on COVID Act Now:
- Active or imminent outbreak
- At Risk
- Controlled
- On track to contain COVID
On June 17, Michigan and New York were the only two states on track to contain. Now, neither state is on track and Michigan has been moved backwards to At Risk for an outbreak.
A big part of the reason for that change is Michigan's' infection rate, which has climbed to 1.14 - in other words, each individual positive for COVID-19 is infecting 1.14 other people.
In mid-June, when Michigan was succeeding, the infection rate was 0.85.
There is some good news in the numbers as Michigan's positive test rates are still below 3%, at 2.3%, which suggests enough testing is being done to detect most new cases. But in mid-June, that number was down to just 1%.
COVID Act Now also reports Michigna's contact tracing is at 48% and needs improvement. This means that Michigan is likely able to trace 48% of new COVID infections in 48 hours. At these lower levels of tracing, it is unlikely Michigan will be able to successfully identify and isolate sources of disease spread fast enough to prevent new outbreaks.
The organization breaks the numbers further down into each county but does not have data for every county in Michigan.
The state of Michigan is also making similar evaluations by moving many regions up from low risk to medium risk while the Detroit region was moved up to medium-high risk.
Officials say on the MI Start Map website that the Grand Rapids region increased after three weeks of increased cases. The Detroit region increased based on case rate and percent positivity increases over the last three weeks. The Traverse City and Upper Peninsula regions have also seen increased case rates and testing positivity.