Too early to tell if weekend brings blizzard or nothing for Michigan

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Deep breath people. This Saturday we are keeping an eye on what could be a big snow maker. It could also fizzle into nothing. Frustrated by that? So are we.

If we boil down all the weather models we use, there are two important ones that we look at multiple times a day. They project out 10 days into the future, but the success rate drops off considerably after day 3 and even more after day 5. 

That is because Thing B happens because of Thing A and Thing C happens because Thing B. But if Thing A changes... the whole thing is off. Which is why on Tuesday we are weary to discuss snow totals for Saturday - but the internet is a buzz, so allow us to explain.

The European model has a lot of snow for us throughout the day on Saturday. As in, like double digits totals. The GFS model however, has almost none. 

Why such a variance in the two? 

The system that could/would eventually bring us the snow *doesn't even exist* yet! It is way back West, in the Pacific Ocean.  

Right now, the system is off the coast of California and has to pass over the western states, across northern Texas and the Gulf States, then it will hit the Tennessee Valley and only then will it turn north and head towards southeast Michigan.

Will it develop into the big snow maker, or will it peter out into nothing? The honest answer is: we don't know yet. That's a lot of ground to cover.

We know it's something to watch, we know we will be constantly looking at model updates and current conditions over the next 72 hours but we can't accurately predict snowfall totals yet. 

Naturally, this is all coming after we get into the 50s this week.

We'll be posting updated forecasts all week on and you can download the FOX 2 Weather App and track the storm yourself.