SOUTHFIELD, Mich. (FOX 2) - When Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer announced the state's COVID-19 vaccine lottery, it brought with it a wave of hope of people who wanted to possibly win big through the giveaway. But what are the odds of actually winning?
As it turns out, they're actually better than things that many people do every day - like Powerball.
The state is giving away multiple prizes over the next month. The two biggest ones are a $2 million ‘grand prize’ - which will be drawn in August - and a $1 million prize - which is expected to be drawn on July 11.
To win the prizes, you have to be registered. You are NOT automatically registered by having already gotten the vaccine.
How likely are you to win the daily COVID-19 vaccine lottery?
Setting aside the scholarship prizes, the state has 41 total cash prizes but not everyone is eligible for all 41 prizes. That's because 31 of those prizes are daily giveaways ONLY for people who receive their first dose of the vaccine in July. Those 31 prizes are $50,000 in daily drawings.
The odds of winning of $50,000 from the state are a bit hard to calculate because it depends on how many people are vaccinated on that given day. The state wants to get 700,000 more people vaccinated in July and there are 31 days in July. So let's say the state hits that goal by the end of the month and does the same amount of vaccines every day. That would be a bit more than 23,000 people vaccinated every single day.
That gives you a 1 in 23,333 every single day.
That's a .0042% chance of winning.
Ok - so that may not seem great. But let's compare to the likelihood of winning money in Powerball.
What are the odds of winning $50K from Powerball?
Powerball fever is real! Every time the pot hits over a few hundred million, the lines at the stores are out the door for a chance to win the money. But, for this example, let's assume it's this week's drawing which is $101 million.
The odds of winning $50,000 in Saturday's drawing are at 1 in 913,129.
That's a .0001% chance of winning.
See? The odds of winning $50K from Michigan are way higher.
The odds of winning the COVID-19 vaccine grand prizes
Now let's review the larger prizes. There are two big prizes that are eligible for all Michigan residents who have received at least one dose of the vaccine since Dec. 1, 2020.
As of June 30, more than 5 million residents have received at least one dose of the vaccine.
So the odds of winning the $1 million prize that will be drawn on July 10 will be slightly better than winning the $2 million prize.
If we estimate that roughly 5,1000,000 will have their first vaccine by July 10, that gives you a 1 in 5,100,000 chance of winning the million prize.
That's a .0000019% chance of winning.
Let's say the state hits its goal of 70% vaccinated by the end of July. That would be 5,667,842 people.
When the drawing takes place in August, that will be a 1 in 5,667,842 chance of winning the $2 million prize.
That's a .0000017% chance of winning.
What are the odds of winning $1M from Powerball?
To win a million dollars in this Saturday's drawing, your odds are 1 in 11,688,053.
That's a .0000085% of winning
You are roughly five times as likely to win $1 million or $2 million through the COVID-19 vaccine lottery than you from winning $1 million in Powerball.
As for winning the grand prize? That's 1 in 292,201,338. Which is a percentage that is…..tiny.
You are 52 times as likely to win $1 million or $2 million through the Michigan COVID-19 vaccine lottery than you are through Powerball.
And that's if all 5 million people who are vaccinated register! That could change, depending on the number of people who register. So tell your friends to register - or don't and increase your own chances. Up to you!